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Prospects for agricultural trade and prices. Discussion document Memoir

Por: Mitchell, D.O | Banco Mundial, Washington, D.C. (EUA). Economic Development Inst | IICA, San José (Costa Rica). Programa de Comercializacion y Agroindustria | Seminar on Trade and Pricing Policies in Latin American Agriculture Cartagena (Colombia) 27-30 Mar 1987.
Tipo de material: ArtículoArtículoSeries Reports, Results and Recommendations from Technical Events A1/OC (IICA) no. 88-07. Editor: San José (Costa Rica) 1988Descripción: p. 61-74.ISSN: 0253-4746.Tema(s): COMERCIALIZACION | PRECIOS | MACROECONOMIA | POLITICA GUBERNAMENTAL | PROYECCIONES | EXPORTACIONES | PRODUCTOS ALIMENTICIOS | AMERICA LATINAResumen: The document refers to the growth of agricultural trade during the l970s and l980s. It the rapid growth during the l970s and the slow growth during the early l980s, that can largely be traced to income growth in the developing countries and centrally-planned economies. The lingering effects of the severe world recession in the early l980s has been a major contributor to the slow growth of exports in recent years. The document adds that the growth of income, changes in the rate of inflation and in the exchange rates between the currencies of major trading countries are critically important factors for future agricultural trade and prices prospects. As an alternative, the macroeconomic forecast is a positive sign for commodity markets and this should contribute to the general price rises expected for agricultural exports and prices. The revisions to US farm policy which took effect in l986 had important influences on commodity prices, especially for grains, soybeans and cotton. (MIBA)

The document refers to the growth of agricultural trade during the l970s and l980s. It the rapid growth during the l970s and the slow growth during the early l980s, that can largely be traced to income growth in the developing countries and centrally-planned economies. The lingering effects of the severe world recession in the early l980s has been a major contributor to the slow growth of exports in recent years. The document adds that the growth of income, changes in the rate of inflation and in the exchange rates between the currencies of major trading countries are critically important factors for future agricultural trade and prices prospects. As an alternative, the macroeconomic forecast is a positive sign for commodity markets and this should contribute to the general price rises expected for agricultural exports and prices. The revisions to US farm policy which took effect in l986 had important influences on commodity prices, especially for grains, soybeans and cotton. (MIBA)

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