Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 42

Agriculture will face significant challenges in the 21st century, largely due to the need to increase global food supply under the declining availability of soil and water resources and increasing threats from climate change. Nonetheless, these challenges also offer opportunities to develop and promote food and livelihood systems that have greater environmental, economic, and social resilience to risk. It is clear that success in meeting these challenges will require both the application of current multidisciplinary knowledge, and the development of a range of technical and institutional innovations. This paper identifies possible climate change responses that address agricultural production at the plant, farm, regional, and global scales. Critical components required for the strategic assessment of adaptation capacity and anticipatory adaptive planning is identified and examples of adaptive strategies for a number of key agricultural sectors are provided. Adaptation must be fully consistent with agricultural rural development activities that safeguard food security and increase the provision of sustainable ecosystem services, particularly where opportunities for additional financial flows may exist, such as payments for carbon sequestration and ecosystem conservation. The authors conclude by making interim recommendations on the practical strategies necessary to develop a more resilient and dynamic world agriculture in the 21st century.